How the Index Is Built
Ten watched domains, one cross-cutting reliability layer, and a composite number on its own Signal Level scale: 5 is calm, 1 is critical.
The Ten Domains
Energy Grid
Gas storage vs 5-year seasonal norm, demand met by imports (EIA-930).
● LIVE · EIA
0 Reality Check videos analyzed here
Geopolitical Posture
Great-power kinetic events, alliance and nuclear tripwires, three chokepoints, sanctions tempo, advisories, war odds.
● LIVE · Polymarket
2 Reality Check videos analyzed here
Internet & Telecom
US internet outage alerts (IODA), actively exploited vulnerability tempo (CISA KEV), corroborated outage news.
● LIVE · IODA (Georgia Tech)
0 Reality Check videos analyzed here
Positioning, Timing & Comms
GPS constellation health vs the 24-satellite baseline, space weather, carrier / 911 / GPS-interference outage reports.
● LIVE · Comms outage monitor
1 Reality Check video analyzed here
Banking & Financial
Financial stress index and bank credit growth vs 3-year normals, market news.
● LIVE · FRED (H.8)
2 Reality Check videos analyzed here
Supply Chain
Diesel price and freight index vs 3-year normals, corroborated shipping news.
● LIVE · FRED (BTS)
0 Reality Check videos analyzed here
Water Systems
Extreme-drought extent vs the 26-year Drought Monitor record. Acute water-safety feeds are not yet public.
● LIVE · US Drought Monitor
0 Reality Check videos analyzed here
Social & Civil Stability
US unrest event tempo (GDELT) vs a 270-day normal, corroborated news.
● LIVE · GDELT
4 Reality Check videos analyzed here
Public Health
Drug shortages, SARS-CoV-2 wastewater detection, health news.
● LIVE · CDC
0 Reality Check videos analyzed here
AI & Automation
Disclosed AI misuse and loss-of-control incidents, software job-postings index, recent-graduate unemployment, prediction-market odds on AI incidents.
● LIVE · FRED (BLS CPS)
1 Reality Check video analyzed here
Composite Formula
Reliability Grading — NATO Admiralty Code
Every claim feeding a domain score is graded like "B2" — Source Reliability (A–F, the outlet's track record) × Information Credibility (1–6, the specific claim). Political bias is scored as a separate axis; the Admiralty Code doesn't cover it by design.
Public Data, Badge and Embed
The current composite, every domain's Signal Level, and 30 days of daily history are published as JSON. A live badge renders the composite level for a README, a blog sidebar, or a forum signature. Both are cached for five minutes and free to use with attribution (CC BY-NC 4.0). Unlimited accounts get a personal data key that adds the recorded reading behind each domain, 90 days of history, the ledger summary, and CSV exports of the complete record.
JSON feed
https://signalfireindex.com/api/v1/index.json
curl -s https://signalfireindex.com/api/v1/index.json | jq .composite
Live badge
<a href="https://signalfireindex.com/"><img src="https://signalfireindex.com/badge.svg" alt="Signal Fire Index: current Signal Level"></a>
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Signal Fire Index?
An independent, non-governmental civil preparedness index. It tracks conditions across ten domains (energy, connectivity, banking, water, AI, and others) and reports a single composite reading on its own Signal Level scale, where 5 is calm and 1 is critical.
Is Signal Fire Index affiliated with any government agency?
No. This is an independent project, not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by any government agency, contractor, or emergency management organization.
How is the composite score calculated?
A weighted average of the ten domain scores, floored (never rounded up) toward the more severe level, then adjusted by two rules: a cascade floor (the composite can't read better than the level where two or more domains already sit) and a single-critical override (one domain alone hitting Level 1 floors the whole composite to Level 1).
What is the Reality Check tool?
A free tool that analyzes a YouTube video's transcript and separates its objectively evidenced claims from subjective or fear-based ones, citing the exact sentences behind each finding rather than issuing an unexplained verdict.
Where does the data come from?
Every domain is fed by named public sources: government statistical series, agency feeds, prediction markets, and wire-service headlines classified by a local model. Each source and its current reading is listed on this page, and the exact reading behind each Signal Level appears on the homepage. Where no clean public source exists for a metric, that gap is stated plainly rather than filled with a plausible-sounding but fabricated number.
Is there an API or a badge I can embed?
Yes. The current composite, every domain level, and 30 days of history are published as JSON at /api/v1/index.json, and a live Signal Level badge is served at /badge.svg, both free with attribution under CC BY-NC 4.0. Unlimited accounts get a personal data key that adds the recorded reading behind each domain, 90 days of history, the ledger summary, and CSV exports.
What is the prediction ledger?
When the Reality Check finds a dated, checkable prediction in a video ("a major event within two months"), it logs it against the channel. Once the window closes, the prediction is graded correct, wrong, or unclear. Channel records are at /ledger, behind a free account.