Methodology

How the Index Is Built

Nine watched domains, one cross-cutting reliability layer, and a composite number on its own Signal Level scale: 5 is calm, 1 is critical.

The Nine Domains

Signal Level 5

Energy Grid

Generation reserve, transmission integrity, fuel stock depth.

● LIVE · EIA

0 Reality Check videos analyzed here

Signal Level 5

Internet & Telecom

Backbone routing, undersea cables, CDN/carrier uptime.

● LIVE · CISA KEV catalog

0 Reality Check videos analyzed here

Signal Level 5

Banking & Financial

Bank health, liquidity stress, payment rail uptime.

● LIVE · FRED (H.8)

1 Reality Check video analyzed here

Water Systems

Treatment, distribution, drought, OT security.

○ PENDING

0 Reality Check videos analyzed here

Signal Level 4

Supply Chain

Fuel, food, ports, rail, labor actions.

● LIVE · FRED (BTS)

0 Reality Check videos analyzed here

Signal Level 5

Social & Civil Stability

Unrest, curfews, Guard activations.

● LIVE · GDELT

4 Reality Check videos analyzed here

Signal Level 4

Geopolitical Posture

Force posture, sanctions, active conflict fronts.

● LIVE · News (Al Jazeera + BBC World)

0 Reality Check videos analyzed here

Signal Level 5

GPS / PNT

Jamming, spoofing, constellation and space-weather health.

● LIVE · NOAA SWPC

1 Reality Check video analyzed here

Signal Level 5

Public Health

Outbreak status, ICU load, medical supply chain.

● LIVE · CDC

0 Reality Check videos analyzed here

Composite Formula

Base score — always floor, never round. Weighted average of the nine domain scores, rounded toward the more severe integer. A 3.60 reads as Level 3, not Level 4.
Cascade floor. Take the second-worst individual domain score — the level at which two or more domains sit at-or-worse. The composite can never read better than that.
Single-critical override. If any one domain alone hits Level 1, the entire composite floors to Level 1, regardless of the other eight.

Reliability Grading — NATO Admiralty Code

Every claim feeding a domain score is graded like "B2" — Source Reliability (A–F, the outlet's track record) × Information Credibility (1–6, the specific claim). Political bias is scored as a separate axis; the Admiralty Code doesn't cover it by design.

Honesty rule: where no clean automatable source exists for a metric, that's stated plainly, not papered over with a plausible-sounding fake feed.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Signal Fire Index?

An independent, non-governmental civil preparedness index. It tracks conditions across nine domains (energy, connectivity, banking, water, and others) and reports a single composite reading on its own Signal Level scale, where 5 is calm and 1 is critical.

Is Signal Fire Index affiliated with any government agency?

No. This is an independent project, not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by any government agency, contractor, or emergency management organization.

How is the composite score calculated?

A weighted average of the nine domain scores, floored (never rounded up) toward the more severe level, then adjusted by two rules: a cascade floor (the composite can't read better than the level where two or more domains already sit) and a single-critical override (one domain alone hitting Level 1 floors the whole composite to Level 1).

What is the Reality Check tool?

A free tool that analyzes a YouTube video's transcript and separates its objectively evidenced claims from subjective or fear-based ones, citing the exact sentences behind each finding rather than issuing an unexplained verdict.

Why isn't the index fully live yet?

Most of the nine domains still need a real, verifiable public data source wired up. Where one exists, it's used; where it doesn't yet, that's stated plainly on this page instead of filling the gap with a plausible-sounding but fabricated number.